Four Basics of Exit Planning 2: Distance to Goal

Once you understand your company’s value, the next step in planning is to calculate your Distance to Goal. As the Cheshire Cat said, “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there.”

“Any road” is not the way you want to approach the biggest financial event of a career. Distance to Goal calculations require an understanding of where you are now, where you want to wind up, and how long you need to get there. In both industry surveys and my own experience, the majority of business owners have (at best,) only a rough idea of the road they will take.

Calculating Distance to Goal

Where you are now is a calculation of your current liquid net worth. “Liquid” implies assets, such as stocks and bonds, that you can use for living expenses. Your home isn’t liquid. Income property isn’t liquid, but you can apply the rents to your retirement needs. Don’t include the value of your company at this stage. We’ll get to that in a moment.

Next, you need to calculate how much you’ll need for the next phase of your life. That may be  called retirement, but it also might be charitable or community work, satisfying a long-desired wanderlust, or even starting another business. A good financial planner can help you with the assumptions for inflation, longevity and future medical costs.

From a starting point (current liquid net worth,) and a target destination (financial needs at retirement) you can calculate a financial Distance to Goal. Now it is time to choose a time frame.

Add the amount you expect to save each year that you continue working to your liquid assets plus the post-tax proceeds of transferring your company at its current value. Do you reach your goal?

Navigating the Path

With this exercise, some owners are surprised to learn that they are on track, and only need to maintain their current path to realize their objectives. Unfortunately, more find that they can’t reach their destination in the desired time frame without some changes.

This simple triangulation, with a solid starting point, concrete destination and a time frame gives you a clear look at the options available to you. They might include:

  • Increase liquid assets: Do you have underutilized real estate? Will you downsize your living quarters once retired?
  • Increase savings: Can you make adjustments in your business or your lifestyle to augment what you are currently saving?
  • Increase value: Would changes in your business make it more attractive to certain buyers? (That will be post #3 in this series.)
  • Increase time frames: Could working a couple of years longer close the gap in your planning?

You can experiment by modeling different scenarios using the free Triangulation Tool at www.YourExitMap.com.

Stephen Covey made famous the phrase “Begin with the end in mind.” If you understand your Distance to Goal, you are better able to choose a road that gets you there.

 

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Generational Difference (on radio)

(6 minutes)

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Four Basics of Exit Planning 1: Valuation

There are four basics an owner should address before beginning any exit, succession or transition plan. They are Valuation, Distance to Goal, Prospective Buyers and Professional Team.

First, my apologies for missing a tri-weekly post. Between trips to Denver for BEI’s National Exit Planning Conference, Dallas for a client, San Antonio for our own XPX Exit Planning Summit, Nashville for the national EPI Exit Planning Summit and St. Louis for Archford’s Metro Business Owner Summit, I kind of lost track of my posting schedule.

Here is the first of the four basic requirements. I promise not to dally in posting the rest of full set.

Understanding Valuation

Value is the starting point for all transition planning. Any decision, any business plan, and every retirement projection (either for time frames or finances) must start with the value of your business today.

Knowing the value of your business is different from thinking you know it. I talk to many owners who say “I met a guy at a trade show, and he told me that he knows a guy with a business just like mine who sold his company for five million dollars. I think I’m a little bigger than he was, so I know my business is worth at least six million.”

Sounds foolish? How about “My accountant says that all small business sell for about five times earnings.” Or “Everyone in my industry knows that all companies like ours sell for one and a half times revenue.”

Any valuation estimate that is in the same sentence as “all,” or “everyone” is a crock. Multiples may serve as guidelines, but the value of a specific business is always unique to that business.

How much is a manufacturer of disposable paper products worth? How much if they specialize in paper straws? How much does that value change every time McDonalds or Southwest Airlines announces that they are switching to paper straws? How much is it worth if it is the last paper straw manufacturer in the USA (like Aardvark® Straws?) If you understand value, your mental estimate should have changed with each sentence.

Every change in the above paragraph described an intangible. Events and market conditions are as important, or in some cases more important, than last year’s numbers. Valuation starts with profitability and cash flow, but the real price that someone will pay for a business lies in the intangibles.

Intangibles

There are scores of intangible factors affecting business value. Most are related to customers, employees or systems. Ask yourself these questions (although there are many more.)

  • Customers:
    • Do you get more than 20% of your sales from one customer?
    • Is your revenue recurring (by contract) or a series of one-time transactions?
    • Is your value proposition more than just “good service?”
    • Are steady or repeat customers increasing their purchases?
    • Can you forecast their purchasing accurately?
  • Employees:
    • Do you have managers that can run day to day operations without you?
    • Are your key employees too close to retirement age?
    • Is turnover too high, or nonexistent?
    • Are important positions cross trained via a formal process?
    • Do you have non-competes and/or long term retention incentives?
  • Systems
    • How accurate is your budgeting when compared to historical reality?
    • Are all processes documented and followed?
    • Is equipment carefully maintained?
    • Are proprietary systems and knowledge protected?
    • Do you track the effectiveness of sales and advertising expenses?

All valuations begin with profitability and cash flow. Most business appraisals take at least a cursory look at a few of the intangibles listed above. Buyers, however, will look at all of these factors and more.

Understanding the four basics of exit planning starts with valuation. If you don’t know where you are, it’s tough to plan where you are going.

For over twenty years, business owners have asked me “What can I do to increase the value of my company?” My answer is always the same.

“Exactly what you should be doing to improve it every day.”

Do you think you know the value of your business? Try the “Sellers Sanity Check,” a free tool at YourExitMap.com

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One Response to Four Basics of Exit Planning 1: Valuation

  1. David Cunningham says:

    Monitoring the growth or decline in the value of a company is an important business metric. It helps owners justify the effort they puts into the company, assess risk/return on use of capital or debt, and make exit and retirement decisions. The owner can establish a valuation process for the valuation, and repeat it each year. This process can be a wake up call to opportunities or threats.

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Exit Planning: Ripples and Ripples.

Every stone thrown into a pond creates ripples. Every advance in technology does the same.

The late Stephen Hawking said that we were progressing too quickly. Along with other technology and science notables, he argued for a slowing down of development in Artificial Intelligence (AI).

Most current “AI” is actually machine learning. As computing speed increases exponentially, the ability of a computer to calculate, test hypotheses and weigh varying outcomes increases as well. Computers can now beat the best humans at every game ever invented. From Chess to Go, and from Texas Hold ‘Em to Ms. Pac Man, binary geniuses are sorting through billions of possibilities, and even being credited with rudimentary “intuition.”

But Machine Learning isn’t intelligence. A computer can sort through every chess move possible, but has trouble deciding what to do when a person with a bicycle steps out between two cars.  What if the correct answer is to swerve into oncoming traffic? A computer can’t make that call.

Robots on the Roads

That doesn’t mean you can be smug about what is coming. Take autonomous trucks. Clearly they aren’t smart enough (yet) to negotiate narrow city streets, bumper to bumper traffic jams or unload oddly-shaped cargo. That would require some real intelligence. But they don’t have to. They can just take care of the 80% of the easy stuff, long haul driving. Automatically driving great distances on relatively clear roads is completely feasible right now.

What if autonomous trucks were limited to driving from 8:00 PM to 6:00 AM? A few lanes on interstate highways could easily be electronically tagged for higher speed,  and robot-truck only use. They can follow more closely, having both quicker reaction times and the connected ability to “see” what is happening further ahead. A truck that doesn’t have to stop for food or sleep could cover a lot of ground in ten hours of high speed driving. Daytimes would be reserved for human-operated local delivery.

Ripples in the Pond.

How much would that affect trucking and other industries?

There would be far fewer driver jobs, although most drivers would likely be closer to home.

Traffic would be greatly lessened during the day. Good, you say? Tell that to the paving contractors, sign companies, crane operators, orange cone manufacturers, lighting and signal electricians or bridge builders. It could be decades before we have to expand highway capacity again. With the speed of technological advancement, decades could translate into “never.”

Is this good news for truck stops, all night diners, and budget motels? Heavy equipment manufacturers? Civil engineering companies? Public sector spending on highway construction is almost $100 billion every year. For comparison, that’s about the size of the whole digital/streaming TV and video industry.

Returning to the trucking industry itself, I doubt that trucks will remain as “one size fits all.”  Current testing is on models than can be autonomous, but also accommodate a human driver. The latter will go away. Robotic models can greatly reduce size, be more aerodynamic, and weigh less. They would also be more fuel efficient, and could be electric.

Uh oh. Trucks consume almost a quarter of all the petroleum products used in the U.S. That starts the conversation about the impact on oil companies, the fuel distribution network, gas dispenser manufacturers, drillers, pipeline construction, tank fabrication and installation…the ripples continue.

As an Exit Planner, I’m predisposed to look down the road, and to consider the risk in every transfer. Not all scenarios are doom and gloom, and many new industries will be born, most of which I can’t imagine.

I guess my message is that none of us should be smug about the future. If the financial community sees a threat on the horizon, expect lenders and investors to run the other way, fast. We watch the stones. They watch the ripples.

 

 

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Podcast – Money Chasing Businesses

On Jim Blasingame’s “Small Business Advocate” show, Jim asked me about the flood of professional money chasing mid-market businesses. I thought you might like to listen to this segment. Two Factors Driving Business Sales.

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