Where Will All the Small Businesses Go?

What would the small business landscape look like if over one million small businesses disappeared? Get ready, it’s about to happen.

I write and speak frequently about the passing of the entrepreneurial generation. Driven by competitive pressures to succeed, the Boomers became small business owners in unprecedented numbers not seen since. They now account for about 2/3 of all the small employers (under 500 workers) in the United States.

The two generations that follow, the Xers and Millennials, don’t have the capital, the material ambitions, or the need to chase the Boomers into small business. For a free download of my ten-article series on this transition, go to The Boomer Bust and use the password “Woodstock.”

For one moment, let’s just review the numbers. In 2018, all Boomers will be between 54 and 73 years old. Eight thousand a day will be turning 65. The Xers who can buy their businesses will be turning 45 only at a rate of 4,000 a day. Nothing can be done to change this gap.

closed doorsJust over 7% of Boomers own companies with employees, or about 5,500,000 small businesses. That equates to about 215,000 owner retirements annually. If the Xers were willing and able to buy businesses proportionate to their numbers (and they are neither willing nor able,) we will still have over 100,000 businesses a year without buyers. That is 300 businesses a day closing, seven days a week, 52 weeks a year, for ten years.

I’ve been discussing this demographic tsunami since 2007. A few other writers are beginning to realize how big this shift will be. There is no cure. We can’t make people who aren’t interested in a Boomer lifestyle into workaholics. We can’t fund budding entrepreneurs who  have no means to secure traditional financing. We can’t change the sheer volume of retiring owners.

The term “exit planning” is spreading fast, and with good reason. It is going to be the hot button for millions of small business owners throughout the rest of this decade and the next. If your plan is to work until you just don’t feel like it anymore, and then expect to have someone jump at the opportunity to take over from you, think again. The market will be crowded, and only the best-run small businesses will find a buyer.

This week we were reviewed by Martin Zwilling in the Huffington Post. Thanks Martin!  Hunting in a Farmer’s World: Celebrating the Mind of an  Entrepreneur is a nominee for Best Small Business Book of the Year. Please support us, and entrepreneurs everywhere, by taking a moment to cast your one-click vote here. Thank you!

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Posted in Entrepreneurship, Exit Planning, Exit Strategies, Thoughts and Opinions, Top Blog Posts | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

One Response to Where Will All the Small Businesses Go?

  1. Rich Schell says:

    Hi
    Congratulations on your award. I ran across your book and your IBPA award in the newsletter I am one of the relatively few lawyers around with a foot in the publishing and food and ag entreprneurship camps. I blog at http://schellacres.typepad.com/ and your book would be a natural to review if you are interested in having a review on the blog. Best Success with your book, I think it’s a crucial insight about temperament–can’t make cows hunt, can’t make lions graze (happily).
    Best
    Rich Schell

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Business Owners are Glubricants

Utility Infielder, Jack-of-All-Trades, Mr. Fixit, Chief Cook and Bottle Washer, Know-It-All, Do-It-All, Swiss Army Knife, Center of the Universe. There are many ways to describe the myriad business roles filled by the owner of a small business. Here’s another. The Glubricant.

I have to share credit for this column with my friend and client Phil Canter, owner of Digital Pro Lab. During a coaching session discussing employees Phil was struggling to describe his primary responsibility in his company. Either Phil misspoke or I misheard what he said and voila, a new word is born. (Of course, I’ve since looked it up in the Urban Dictionary and discovered we hadn’t coined it; it’s just not used very much.)

swiss army knifeIt is one of those new words that I like because it’s meaning is intuitive. Every owner (and manager) can understand it on first hearing. Like Ginormous (a far more popular made up word) it combines two well known words into one, but in this case it’s a combination of antonyms. Glue and lubricant have opposite functions. Using one as a substitute for the other would assure bad results. Leadership, however, is an ongoing process of deciding which tool to put in play on a minute-by-minute basis.

Managing people effectively means getting them to work together. Sometimes that takes glue, and sometimes it takes lubricant. Knowing which role to assume, and when, is the key to building a successful organization.

This week we were Honorable Mention in the San Francisco Book Festival and reviewed on HugDug by Seth Godin. Hunting in a Farmer’s World: Celebrating the Mind of an  Entrepreneur is a nominee for Best Small Business Book of the Year. Please support us, and entrepreneurs everywhere, by taking a moment to cast your one-click vote here. Thank you!

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When an Employee Can’t Grow With You

Every business is an organism. It is either growing or dying. I’ve met a few owners who said “I want everything (sales, staff, profits) to stay exactly as it is,” but none who were actually able to pull that off.

As we grow our companies, we hire people. Because entrepreneurs frequently lack the wherewithal to provide salary and benefits in line with big corporations, we tend to look for talent over experience, and attitude over education. In a startup, the founder/owner serves as Chief Training Officer, teaching everyone the business of the business.

Mentor and employeeHopefully, you’ve experienced the thrill of finding a bright young employee who is anxious to learn. He or she brings great values and work ethic to the workplace every day, and assumes an expanding scope of duties without being asked. Naturally, you are more than willing to grant additional responsibilities.

But there is a limit. Let’s face it, the seasoned and experienced professional that you couldn’t afford when you started out is more expensive for a reason. That type of employee is expected to bring knowledge you don’t have, or skills you can’t teach as part of his package.

The employee you trained from scratch has done nothing wrong. He’s learned all you can teach him. He is still dependable and energetic. He just doesn’t have the resources to take his area of responsibility, or the company, to the next level. Of course, by the time you realize this, he probably already holds a position that requires more horsepower than he can provide.

You can create a new level of management above him. You can demote him to a lesser role. You can fire him. You can try to grow around him. You can provide outside education in the hope that it will make up for lack of experience. You can point out his shortcomings until he quits in frustration.

There are no great solutions.

If you’ve established a relationship of trust, it is time to have a difficult conversation. Define clearly what you need, and be honest about whether the employee can achieve it while still working for you. If the answer is no, you can plan together how both he and the company will move on with a minimum of pain for both.

Hunting in a Farmer’s World: Celebrating the Mind of an  Entrepreneur is a nominee for Best Small Business Book of the Year. Please support us, and entrepreneurs everywhere, by taking a moment cast your one-click vote here. Thank you!

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You Make Two Types of Decisions

The principle function of leadership is making decisions. Whether you own a business or direct the work of others, your employees come to you with issues they can’t solve themselves.

decision statueThere are two types of decisions. One is easy; you just know something that others don’t. It may be the history of an account, or which approach has proven most effective in the past. You understand exactly why a particular option is desirable, and communicate the correct answer to someone who doesn’t (yet) know it.

The second type of decision is more difficult. The problem is new, or presents a twist that makes a solution less obvious. There is risk involved. The wrong approach may cost time, money, or impact a customer relationship. Often it is a combination of all three. Choosing an answer requires balancing factors, prioritizing desired outcomes, and thinking through various potential side effects.

These are leadership decisions. They are based on gestalt, something that is made up of many parts, but is more than just the sum of the factors. You choose to waive a shipping minimum for a loyal customer, or fill a backorder through a competitor to complete an invoice. You may make a different call in different cases, based on slight variations in the factors that aren’t obvious to everyone else.

These gestalt decisions can only be made by you. It’s why you are in the first seat on the bus. To you, they may seem as instinctive and no more difficult than routine technical or process-driven choices, but a lack of clear guidelines make them a unsolvable mystery to others.

Owners and executives ask “Why can’t my employees think like me?” For decisions based on your technical or historical knowledge, the answer is straightforward. Stop taking the easy way out (just making the decision because it’s quicker and simpler that way) and concentrate on downloading your knowledge so others have the information they need to make routine choices without you.

More complex calls; those that require having a bigger picture, seeing into the future, assessing and accepting risks, and bending the rules, are the reason you are there. That’s why we are Hunters.

Hunting in a Farmer’s World: Celebrating the Mind of an  Entrepreneur, now has its own Facebook Page. Tell us your stories and read reviews from business owners who are putting the lessons of 7,000 years to work in their businesses.

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  1. Grant Bullock says:

    I would like to use “You Make Two Types of Decisions” on my facebook page, BizProfit.

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You Only have Two Hands…or not.

To paraphrase an old New Yorker cartoon  “I love being self employed. You can set your own hours, as long as you don’t mind working 24 each day.” Many owners find themselves “too busy” running a company to concentrate on the longer term improvements that come with planning, employee development and creating new initiatives.

An extra pair of hands would be “handy.”  From the Hindu deity Kali to Star Wars’ cyborg General Grievous, and from Edgar Rice Burroughs’ Barsoomians to Spiderman’s foe Doctor Octopus, multi-armed characters have always been a metaphor for strength. For an owner, adding extra hands to your working capacity is a powerful force for improving your company.

Yet, many owners I work with refuse to hire an assistant. They spend hours each week playing telephone tag with customers, writing memos, and following up with employees. When asked why they don’t have someone perform those tasks on their behalf, they say “Because I can do them perfectly well myself.”

They are missing the point. An assistant’s purpose is to free your time to do the more important things that no one else can handle. Your principle responsibility to your business is leveraging resources to produce profit.

Here’s a Rule of Thumb I use in my consulting work. In order to pay expenses and make a profit, I need to produce at least $400 for each hour of a 40-hour week. A good assistant, with fully loaded salary and overhead, costs about $40 per hour. So every hour that assistant frees me for revenue producing activities is leveraged ten to one.

admin assistantWith that kind of return on investment, I don’t worry much about filling every minute of her time. I see too many owners who are focused on keeping people “busy.” If my assistant is bogged down with routine tasks, she won’t have the capacity to juggle the dozens of unplanned responsibilities I toss her way regularly. Each time one of those winds up in my lap, I am spending ten times what it should cost me to get it done.

Keeping the leverage ratio in mind makes it much easier to ask “Do I need to do this myself?” about most activities. It’s not at all unusual for me to call in between appointments with “I just told Bob we’d send him information on the management training program. Charlie left a voice mail, he needs to move our next meeting. I emailed you a draft of a memo, please edit it,  clean it up, and send it to my phone for approval. Oh, and I need to see that analysis we did last month on ABC company; they are asking about the next step.”

I just saved two hours, or a net of $720 in available productivity. That’s enough to pay an assistant’s salary for almost a week. No brainer.

This Wednesday is Administrative Professionals Day. Like most owners, I smile at the marketing prowess of the gift and greeting card industry. None the less, they deserve the recognition, and I appreciate being reminded of it.

Hunting in a Farmer’s World: Celebrating the Mind of an  Entrepreneur, now has its own Facebook Page. Tell us your stories and read reviews from business owners who are putting the lessons of 7,000 years to work in their businesses.

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One Response to You Only have Two Hands…or not.

  1. Brent Lane says:

    John,
    Great post!
    I love the simple math of the leverage you are illustrating. It should get the attention of owners who look at expenses not revenue (and usually liabilities not assets!).
    I would suggest a post on how many forms of leverage you can generate as an owner. If your assistant frees you up for a 1-hour lunch that generates $16,000 in revenue, wouldn’t that be a 400X multiplier? (16000/400 (you)x400/40)(her). The $40 you spent for him/her resulted in a $16,000 yield. Or, the time leverage multiple that allowed you to write a book that produces residual income for years?

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