EBITDAC III: Where are we now?

EBITDAC is a facetious term for Earnings Before Interest Taxes Depreciation Amortization and COVID. I first discussed it in this column back in April of 2020, with an update on the impact of PPP loans in May of that year.

A subscriber to our ExitMap® coaching tools recently asked “What are other advisors doing about the impact of 2020 on business valuations?” He was specifically concerned about a client who had a losing year in 2020, but there are few businesses that weren’t affected in some way.

I took the opportunity to reach out to Brent Heflin, the Director of Business Development for BizEquity, to ask how their software was handling it. He was kind enough to share a white paper by their CVO, Scott Gabehart, on their algorithm updates. I’ll return to that document in the “Approaches and Solutions” segment below. (Full disclosure, we are BizEquity subscribers, but received no consideration for this mention.)

The Dual Impact of COVID

As Mr. Gabehart very legitimately points out, COVID wasn’t detrimental to all businesses. I personally work with a company whose revenues increased tenfold as a result of an order by a multinational for a component to a COVID-related product. The owner asked me “So, is my company worth ten times what it was before?”

Of course, it isn’t. The uncertainty of future revenues, combined with discounting for his inordinate (over 90%) concentration in one customer, would offset any rational increase in the valuation of his short-term cash flow. In the meantime, he just has to be satisfied with banking record income.

Nonetheless, a surprising percentage of our clients had a banner year in 2020. Was it COVID? Was it in spite of COVID? Or was it just because their industry was on the sidelines of COVID, and they are seeing the long-term growth effects of running a good company?  It’s hard to determine, much less to assign a numerical value.

Consideration of Follow-on Effects

EBITDAC scaleWhat about other COVID-related impacts on businesses? Of course, hospitality and travel were affected directly. So were home improvement and home-brewing suppliers, although in the opposite direction. But how do you factor in the supply chain disasters that have followed?

If “You’re on mute” was the most used phrase in 2020. “supply chain issues” has to be the winner in 2021. How can you value an auto dealer who has no inventory, or a builder who can’t deliver a product because of lumber or labor shortages?

If you formerly shipped a container of goods from Asia for $2,500, and today it’s costing you $25,000, is that a blip? Will freight costs return to the old norm, a new but lower norm, or is this just a new reality? If you formerly paid $12.00 an hour for labor, and now you are paying $17.00, do you think pay rates are going to return to the old levels?

I have numerous clients who are again posting record years. They are trying to identify how much of that is due to pricing, and how much is real growth. If prices drop next year, how will they account for a corresponding fall in revenues?

Approaches and Solutions

The BizEquity white paper lists a number of technical tweaks to their software to account for changes in the market. Their industry factors are adjusted daily based on the Russell 2000 indexes of industries. They are following anxiety factors, and swings in the future cash flow projections of businesses.

Their job is to deliver an accurate estimate of value based on what similar companies are selling for. It’s not their role to guess what the value of your business might be if factors change again in the future.

On an individual basis, a number of advisors are throwing out 2020 in those industries where regulatory shutdowns severely curtailed revenues. This approach may be valid if the business has since rebounded to previous levels. Alternatively, you can account for the anomaly year as a one-time gain or loss.

EBITDAC isn’t Going Away

In any (and every) case, the validity of any estimate of value is reflected in what a buyer will pay. The fact is, a continued influx of cheap financing, combined with increasing urgency among aging Boomers to leave their businesses, still fuels a strong acquisition market in some sectors.

The impact, both immediate and follow-on, of COVID-related factors isn’t going to magically evaporate. The effects of the virus may support some explanation, but businesses in decline will still sell for less, and those that are growing will realize more.

EBITDAC can be addressed in a number of ways, but it will be part of every valuation and business analysis for years to come.

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Manager or Leader? Planning Succession

Should you hire a manager or leader as part of your succession planning?  Before you make that decision, you need a pretty good idea of what your exit plan is. Once your objective is set, it’s one of the answers that becomes obvious.

Manager or LeaderA manager is someone who gets other people to do their jobs. A leader is someone who gets other people to want to do their jobs. The difference is profound. I’ve written previously about the difference between an SIC (Second in Command) and an SIT (Successor in Training.) The SIC is intended to complement your skills. An SIT is being taught to duplicate them.

That’s why it is never too early to begin planning your eventual exit. Every company needs to build a management team, but not every management team is built for leadership. The sooner you determine your eventual goals as the owner of the company, the more able you are to build a team that gets you closer to those objectives.

Manager or Leader? Manager

A Second-in-Command backfills those areas where you are less able, or less inclined, to manage. In Gino Wickman’s parlance, the owner is the visionary and the SIC is the integrator. In my book Hunting in a Farmer’s World, I refer to them as hunters and farmers. The owner decides what is to be done, and the integrator sees to it that the employees execute those tasks.

In an SIC you are looking for someone who draws the most satisfaction from a job well done. He or she usually responds to metrics. Generally, they can keep the business going for an indefinite period of time, but are unlikely to take it in new directions. A most desirable trait is a willingness to do the same job for another owner.

If you plan to eventually sell the business to a third party, retention of your SIC is a critical component of company valuation. We often recommend “stay” bonuses. These are designed to lend confidence to a potential purchaser, by tying a portion of the sale proceeds to an incentive for the SICs continued tenure.

Manager or Leader: Leader

If you plan to sell the company to employees, or even to step back and become a passive owner, your selection and training of an SIT are even more vital. In this case, you want someone who has a vision of his or her own. It can’t directly conflict with yours, of course, but you have to be willing to let the SIC have some influence on why the company runs the way it does, not just how the work gets done.

The SIT is usually motivated by the concept of ownership. This could involve purchasing the company from you, acting as the focal point of a wider employee purchase, or a minority position. In the latter case, the SIT expects to share in the proceeds of a successful sale.

The biggest benefit of having a Successor-in-Training is the flexibility it gives you in planning your exit. All avenues of transition are still open to you. Your SIT can continue to build value after you step back, take the company off your hands, or act as the bridge for new ownership.

Of course, a good SIT will have to get an SIC of his own…

 

 

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Non-Qualified Plans in Exit Planning

When I talk to business owners about “non-qualified plans,” their first reaction is often “Hold on there. I don’t want to get in trouble!”

The term “Non-qualified” merely refers to the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974, more commonly known as ERISA. As the title indicates, it is the basic set of regulations for retirement plans. If your company offers a 401K or SEP IRA, it has a Qualified Plan. If you have an Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP), that is also an ERISA plan.

Under the terms of ERISA, a plan must be made available to all employees. In return, the company can deduct contributions as benefit expenses, and the employee can contribute pretax income to the plan.

A non-qualified plan doesn’t comply with ERISA requirements.  It is discriminatory in nature, meaning it is not offered equally to all employees. The employee cannot make contributions, and the employer usually can’t deduct the costs of funding the plan (which is built around future benefits,) as current expenses.

Most non-qualified plans are designed as Deferred Compensation, thus the common acronym NQDC. The concept is to offer key employees a carrot for long-term retention. It can be enhanced retirement funding, insurance, or one of many forms of synthetic equity in the business.

Non-qualified Plan Types

We can start with the simplest example of NQDC. If an employee remains with the company until retirement, he or she will receive an additional year’s salary upon retiring. This benefit is not sequestered in a secure account anywhere, it’s just a promise by the company. It’s known as an “unfunded” benefit. There is no annual statement, just a guaranty (typically in writing,) by the business.

Non-qualified plansOften, an NQDC is funded by an insurance policy with a death benefit and an increasing cash value. It is owned by the company, which pays the premiums. At retirement, the employee receives the paid-up policy. This approach has the added benefit of lending confidence to the process, as the employee can see the funding and growth of the future benefit.

Synthetic equity may be stock options, phantom stock, or Stock Appreciation Rights (SARs.) In most forms, it is the right to future compensation based on any increased value of the business. For example, if the business is valued at $2,000,000 today, the employee may be given a contractual right to 10% of the difference in value at the time of retirement. If the company is worth $3,000,000 then, the employee would receive $100,000. ($3,000,000 minus $2,000,000 times 10%.)

Valuation, Vesting, and Forfeiture

Non-qualified plans based on equity should have a formula for valuing the benefit. It may be any financial measure such as revenue, pre-tax profit, or EBITDA. The objective is to make it clear to both parties how the benefit will be measured.

Vesting is an opportunity to be really creative. The benefit can vest gradually, or all at once at a specific point in the future. An employee may be able to collect once fully vested or, in the case of synthetic equity, may have the right to “let it ride” for future growth if other conditions are met.

Regardless of how attractive a benefit may be, no employment relationship lasts forever. Pay special attention to how you construct acceleration and forfeiture clauses. Of course, no one wants to pay out to an employee who has been terminated for cause, but the employee deserves some protection against being let go just because a promised benefit has gotten too expensive.

Similarly, provisions for accelerated valuation in the case of a change in ownership are common. You also may want to consider rolling the NQDC into a stay bonus agreement if you sell the business. If there are options on actual stock involved, you will need to determine the handling of them if they could pass into the hands of someone other than the employee. That would be triggered by bankruptcy, divorce, or death.

Benefits of Non-Qualified Plans

As I described in my book Hunting in a Farmer’s World, incentives for employees should match their level of responsibility. Production workers have incentives based on their production. Managers have incentives based on their ability to manage.

Your very best people, the ones you want to stay with you through their entire careers, should be able to participate in the long-term results of their efforts for the company. Non-qualified plans are a way to single them out and emphasize your interest in sharing what you are building together.

As always. check with your tax advisor. Setting a plan up incorrectly could result in unwanted or phantom taxation for the company or the employee.

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The Missing Employees

Are you missing employees? Where did they go? I just got off the phone with a restaurant owner who temporarily closed one of his locations so that he could redistribute the staff to the other three. I’ve also heard or seen in the last week:

  • A Starbucks closing at 4:00 PM for lack of staff.
  • A director in a large accounting firm reporting that two pay raises in 9 months (for remote employees) are being characterized by the 30-something accountants as “non-competitive.”
  • Apple employees publishing an internal letter saying the company’s plan to require 3 days a week attendance is “unacceptable.”
  • A wire service story noting that only 12% of office workers in Manhattan have returned to their offices.
  • The manager of a new restaurant scheduling 27 interviews, then sitting through 26 no-shows.
  • Wait times for services businesses that are are unworkable for customers. Our tree trimmer offered me a date 4 months out. The pool contractor’s backlog is seven months. Both claimed insufficient crews to handle the business.

missing employeesI talk to at least a dozen employers a week, and all are complaining about the lack of qualified applicants. Several have raised their starting wage rates multiple times, with no discernable change in the flow of applicants.

What the hell is going on? To start, I don’t believe that it’s all the fault of supplementary unemployment benefits. It is true that the states which discontinued the supplements have somewhat lower unemployment rates, and that $300 a week is enough to entice a $10/hour employee, but the missing employees are across the wage range.

Factors Driving the Shortage and Wageflation

One fact is that the economic rebound since 2009 has not previously had much impact on wages.  They were bound to catch up at some point. The Federal Minimum Wage of $7.25 an hour is now insufficient to pay for basic apartment rent anywhere in the USA. Supplementary benefits or not, no one wants to put in 40 hours a week and not be able to live on what they earn.

Another is the absorption of women into the workforce. For much of the ’80s and ’90s, women working for the first time represented a net addition to the number of available workers. This had a depressing effect on wages, as there were more bodies chasing limited jobs. The employment market has adjusted to this new normal.

Remote working has frayed the cultural relationship between employers and employees. Where workers often stayed in a job because they had friends there, or were comfortable with their responsibilities, now salary is rapidly becoming the only factor they consider.

The inflationary pressures of deficit spending are shrinking the buying power of static paychecks.

The lessening of COVID-19 is releasing a backlog of employees who “wanted to move anyway,” but were hanging on to what security they had through the pandemic.

Most importantly, over 50% of the Baby Boomers are now over 65 years old. Generation X is much smaller, so these retirements impact mid-level employees and managers the most. The available pool of experienced people is literally shrinking.

Missing Employees and Exit Planning

If you are one of the Baby Boomers who are now 21% of the population but still own 51% of the private companies in the U.S., missing employees will impact you in more ways than just on your daily workload.

  • Increased labor costs will have a direct impact on profitability, and therefore valuations.
  • The challenge of retaining employees long enough to develop true proficiency is growing. Higher turnover means you’ll need more people for the same tasks.
  • The long-term commitment of a relationship where someone is in training to assume control of the business becomes in many cases, unimaginable to an employee.
  • Lack of experience in a management team also detracts from enterprise value.
  • In businesses that depend on repeat customers, relationships may need to be reestablished regularly.

I saw a cartoon a few weeks ago. An owner is talking to his employees. He says “When we said you were essential workers, we didn’t mean you should be paid like essential workers.” Perhaps they can be forgiven for misunderstanding.

In our mission statements, we often say that employees are our most important asset. It looks like we may have to put our money where our mouth is.

 

 

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4 Responses to The Missing Employees

  1. Jay McDowell says:

    Love this article … every Coaching Client I have is having issues finding qualified candidates at any price. I tell them they will need to “buy” their “A” employees. All the “A’s” are employed. The mention of the “no shows” to interviews is also a new phenomenon.

  2. Valerie Koenig says:

    great article, Posted it to LI.

  3. Doug Roof says:

    As always, John, you’ve avoided offering the simple or obvious answer and explained another complex issue that has a multitude of causes. Thanks for taking the time to put this together.

  4. Mark Komen says:

    My clients are also experiencing interview no-shows as well as people who sign up to work and then disappear after 2 or 3 days and are never heard from again!

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Are Remote Employees Value Killers?

Remote employees can have a dramatic impact on the value of your business. If your exit strategy is to sell to a third party, take some time to think about the areas where offsite workers could have an impact.

Curb Appeal

One of the first things any good business broker will look at is your curb appeal. Your business needs to look good, just like a house that’s for sale. (OK, maybe right now a house doesn’t even need to look good, but you know what I mean.)

When I brokered Main Street businesses, I was always surprised at how much we had to tell owners. Clean up the piles of files in the office. Clean and sweep the parking area. Remove the pile of broken pallets next to the dumpster.

What message does your office space send?  Is it better to downsize, and just describe the employees who are no longer on the premises? Or would a buyer prefer to see a room full of empty desks, so that he knows he could bring them back if he so desired? (But he would also be calculating the wasted rent in his mental cash flow.)

Equating Dollar Value

What are your productivity measurements or KPIs for remote workers? Can you prove that they are worth what you are paying them? How? What level of confidence can a new owner have that he is acquiring a productive team? A recent survey in the U.K showed that almost 30% of remote employees were working a side gig on company time.

remote employeesHow is their remote presentation? Unless they are in a job that is strictly production-based, most will interact with customers, vendors or other employees. Do you have standards for their workspace and their appearance on video?

Can you give a buyer confidence in their compensation structure? New ownership can be a great time to ask for a raise. What assurances are there that it won’t happen? As I wrote a few weeks ago, how do you integrate them into your culture?

Confidentiality and Human Resources

Confidentiality about the transaction is more difficult. Does the buyer interview remote employees one by one? You can be sure they are talking to each other, whether on Teams or Slack or just texting each others’ cell phones.

On the other hand, a group video call raises new issues. A buyer could come out of it with a poor impression because one individual is obnoxious or inattentive. Someone might press for inappropriate information. (“Will all of us keep our jobs?”)

Remote Employees Increase  Risk

I am not campaigning against remote employees. They are a fact of life, now and likely for the foreseeable future. I’m just pointing out that handling their management, controlling the information flow to them, and anticipating their potential impact have all become part of exit planning.

The best surprise is no surprise. Part of your planning process when listing your company for sale should be how you will handle these questions.

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