Socialized Medicine, or Capitalized Medicine?

In 2000 I was asked by a client to make a single business prediction for the new millennium. It was “By 2011, we will have some form of national health care plan, and small business owners who have been priced out of the market will lead the charge on Washington demanding it.”

I think I’m going to be proven prescient. It wasn’t difficult, given the inflation in health care costs, the fact that a new president would be in office, and the failure of business or government to do anything to impact our ridiculous system.

Of course, as soon as you say “government health plan” there are a bunch of folks who start yelling “socialism!” Let me tell you a story from personal observation and experience. It illustrates why our system does too little and costs too much, while also showing why government-run health care is a poor option.

I was working in health care in the San Fernando Valley of California in the late 1980’s. One of the hospitals (there were about a dozen in the Valley at that time) ripped out some walls, poured a new, thick concrete floor, and brought in a monster machine called a Magnetic Resonance Imager (MRI.)

The hospital began an advertising campaign around the MRI. Billboards on Ventura Boulevard proclaimed that hospital the be the most technologically advanced in the area. They began wooing surgeons, especially spinal specialists, because imaging the nerves before surgery led to a dramatic decline in accidental paralysis. The MRI was a great thing, and it brought a lot of new business to the hospital.

Executives at the other hospitals noticed, of course. They quickly went to their Boards, saying “We gots to get us one of them MRI thangs too!” (or words to that effect.)

In the next 18 months, 8 more hospitals in the Valley installed MRIs.

Now these machines cost a lot of money, and returning to the old status quo, merely getting your own patients back, would not come near to paying for them. So the hospitals called in experts (who just happened to work for the MRI manufacturers) to give seminars to the doctors on how to use MRIs for many. many other things than just spinal surgery. Pretty soon, an MRI was standard procedure for ANY surgery.

Now some studies say the reduction in cases of paralysis with an MRI prior to spinal surgery is as much as 50%. Pretty significant, and I sure as hell would want one if someone was opening my back.

But the improvement for other surgeries isn’t just uncertain, it’s never been studied. The procedure was there, and what physician would want to be sued because he could have done something but didn’t?

So thousands of MRIs were added to the insurance bills, at tens of millions of dollars a year just for this section of one city, with no one even knowing whether it was doing any good or not. That, boys and girls, is what happens when the health care system is run by private businesses who seek to maximize profits.

Now, at about this time I happened to read a journal describing the introduction of MRIs in Canada. The Canadians, too, realized what a great benefit this machine could bring under certain circumstances.

Because Canada has a government-run system, however, “equal access for all” is the watchword. You can’t offer a benefit to one person and not make it available to another. So Canada bought 8 MRIs, and installed them in the big regional medical centers in the most populated provinces. They also restricted what diagnoses they could be used for.

Even so, the critical imaging for things like spinal surgeries quickly had a wait list of 2 years. Two year of living in a wheel chair waiting for someone to take a picture so your doctor could fix you.

So the capitalist system created a gross waste of resources, ran up expenses unnecessarily, caused new injury and illness (some percentage of MRIs cause problems, and some doctors think they foster cancer) and still left the poor and uninsured with limited or no access to the technology.

The socialist system cost far less, and offered the benefit to everyone…eventually. As long as 21 million people didn’t mind sharing what south of the border was available to 2 million.

Health care reform isn’t simple, but the folks who are saying “pick ours or pick theirs” are lying to you. Ask them if thy have any vested interest in the hospitals, insurance companies, pharmaceutical companies, physicians, equipment manufacturers, building contractors, technicians, technical schools, lawyers, or even the electric utilities who all shared some of that multi million dollar windfall.

Don’t be naive. All of those people are clearly aware of the opportunities in a system where you can introduce a new product, not have to prove it’s value, and then create a new market solely to pay for the product.

But the Canadians don’t have it right either.

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Key Performance Indicators

I developed this piece for my peer group clients in The Alternative Board®

A number of them have said it’s greatly clarified their understanding of what Key Performance Indicators were, and how to approach them. So I share it here…

KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS: Q & A

Q: What are KPIs?
A: Key Performance Indicators are metrics (that is, quantitative measurements) of how your company is doing. They should act as a “flash” report, giving you a quick check on how your business is progressing, or can be expected to perform in the near future.

Q: Are there “standard” KPIs?
A: Heavens no! Each company has a different driving force, and each should have its own key indicators. KPIs should be “normalized”, however. That means putting them in a format that is easily understood. For instance, your finance company allows you a certain line based upon 80% of the number and age of units in inventory. “My line is at $347,000 on a current inventory value of $458,000,” is difficult to interpret. A “normalized” KPI is, “My credit line is 94.8% of the allowable limit.”

Q: Aren’t sales and profits the two most important measurements?
A: In one sense, but they only tell you the results of your efforts. A number is just data but ratios provide information. If you made $20,000 last month, is that good or bad? If you made $20,000 in the same month last year, was it on the same revenue? A KPI should be measured against something (e.g. Sales against same month last year and against budget).

Q: Why are we doing this? I know my business without KPIs.
A: The main idea is to have a few measurements that help you track critical components of your business. Financial statements just aren’t enough. KPIs should be more “big picture”, taking into consideration your Personal Vision and the company’s goals. A secondary benefit is to help educate your Board members about critical processes and results in your company. The more they know about your business, the better advisors they can be to you.

Q: Should a KPI always be in dollars?
A: Because dollars are a universal method of measurement, it’s tempting to use them for KPIs. Frequently, however, measuring something else will give you more relevent information.

Q: What about leading indicators for my industry, such as oil prices?
A: Preferably at least one KPI should be forward looking, but industry indicators don’t measure your performance. Your metrics should illustrate how you are doing, not your industry.

Here is some “KPI Logic” from various members:
“I want to bring on “x” partners in the next 3 years. Each partner must be supported by $”y” revenue, and my average new account is $”z” annually. My KPI is the number of new accounts opened in the last month and for the year to date.”
“If we have over a “x” week backlog, we begin to miss deadlines due to over commitment but less than “y” weeks and we have underutilized personnel. My KPI is the number of weeks of backlog against the over/under optimum range.”
“We are growing rapidly, and it is difficult to track new hires’ productivity. My KPI is dollars revenue per field technician.”

Q: Once I choose my KPIs, are they defined forever?
A: Nothing is forever!

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Is It Time for Courage?

A friend of mine occasionally shares his copy of EcoTrends®. This research newsletter tracks 41 different economic indicators. Since I’m not actually a subscriber, I refer you to their site if you’re interested in the details of their analysis.

The Institute for Trend Research (the publishers of EcoTrends®) divides economic cycles into four phases. In Phase A economic signals indicate a strengthening. The economy, or at least that industry, is generally on the upswing. In Phase B most indicators are strong: the economy is peaking. In Phase C indicators are falling and a softening of the economy is occurring, whether GDP numbers have indicated it yet or not. In Phase D an indicator is falling and the economy is in recession, at least for that industry.

In the May report, there is precisely 1 indicator in Phase A. There is 1 indicator in Phase B. Twelve indicators are in Phase C and 27 indicators are in Phase D. Of course the question at this point becomes “How many of these recession indicators are nearing the bottom, and preparing to enter back into Phase A?”

The irony inherent in any recession is that while the economy is at its worst, it is the best time to be a buyer. In Phoenix, for example, families whose homes are scheduled to be foreclosed and auctioned on the courthouse steps receive visits from buyer’s agents that morning. These agents compete to arrange leasing deals for the families to stay in their houses, if the buyer purchases the foreclosed mortgage. Unless the Phoenix market falls even more from its current dramatic decline (over 40%). These buyers are leveraging their financial strength into a great income opportunity.

I have two clients, both from excellent businesses. (Actually I have many more than that who run excellent businesses, but these two are my focus today.) They both track leading indicators in their industries, and saw huge declines in the fourth quarter of 2008. They acted aggressively, cutting discretionary expenses, trimming underutilized staff, and freezing or reducing compensation packages while their companies were still enjoying record sales and profits.

They acted aggressively long before most of their competitors or colleagues in the industry. They managed profitability, hoarding the cash from the good times against what they saw coming. Because of that, they have not had to reduce core capabilities, and enjoy somewhat reduced but still respectable profits in 2009.

Now they find themselves with resources in excess of what they expected in mid-2009. At this point in time, opportunities created by the weak economy are becoming more and more obvious. The ability to negotiate terms on capital expenditures, space, and services are as good as it’s been in the last 20 years.

The question is: If moving aggressively to adjust to the downturn has proven to be such a wise move, is moving aggressively in anticipation of the next upswing equally astute?

On the other hand we have an old saying in Texas. “It’s easy to tell who is a pioneer. He’s the guy laying flat on his face with the arrows sticking out of his back.” Moving too quickly, if the recession continues longer than anticipated, can leave you in a situation as bad or worse than if you hadn’t made adjustments in the first place.

In the cases of these clients, they have decided to take some risk, but to hedge it in case they are acting a bit too soon. The first wishes to expand geographically. They will use the softened real estate market to negotiate a favorable lease on new space in another city. To staff it, however, they will use existing personnel. Although the people will be establishing a footprint in the new region, most of their time at present can still be utilized by doing work remotely that’s associated with their existing position.

The second client sees an opportunity to add services based on normally hard to find talent. In their case, they will negotiate aggressive compensation packages, to be brought up to customary industry levels once the new employees have proven that they can generate enough new work to justify it. They will not add new infrastructure or support until that time.

When we interview prospective sellers in business brokerage practice, we ask “if you were taking over this company today, what would you do to rapidly increase your business?” Every business owner knows the answer. There are opportunities that he or she just hasn’t had the time, the resources or the energy to address.

If you acted aggressively on my January blog “Preparing for the Strategic Triple Threat” you might be in better shape than a number of your competitors. It could be time to show a little courage in preparing for the next upswing. I’m not calling the end to the recession. Current conditions will continue for at least a few months and perhaps through the beginning of 2010. The rate of descent, however, is clearly slowing. You should consider what you would do right now if you knew that we have bottomed out.

To those clients who have been holding off on replacing or filling a key position, I’m suggesting that they begin a leisurely search for the absolute best person who can be hired on the best terms to fill it.

If you need new space or equipment, consider the lifespan of what you’re buying. If it is something you intend to utilize the next five to 10 years, whether you’re holding it a few months earlier pales in comparison to the savings of locking in a low price or a low rate all the way through the next expanding cycle.

Ask yourself “What would I do if the phone started ringing off the hook again today?” It isn’t going to happen in the next month or two, but it will happen eventually. You don’t want to be scrambling for talent or other resources after everyone else has started doing the same thing.

There is a risk to being out in front. Like a bicycle racer, your way is much easier if you have someone taking on the headwinds in front of you. But in order to win, you’ll eventually have to lead the pack.

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Changes in Attitude

I imagine that anyone who works with small business owners has noticed an attitude shift since the beginning of this year. Where formerly they were happy to have mediocre employees, now they are looking for something more. Where they overlooked transgressions, now they are writing up infractions. Where they were afraid of having to replace an employee, now they are almost looking forward to it.

Rising unemployment has caused small business owners’ attitudes to turn on a dime. Increasingly, they are willing to tell employees that “someone else would love to have your job.”

Is that true, or are we just reacting to the media hype? In San Antonio our unemployment rate is currently 5.4%, not far from the mid-4% numbers of the “boom” in 2005-2006. Yet, employers here evidence the “I can get someone else” attitude.

The funny thing is, they can. The evidence is undeniable that many, many more applications are coming in for every job posting. It seems that every employee knows someone who is out of work, and is more concerned about performing on the job. The business owners we work with are regularly commenting on how much better the current crop of applicants is.

The Center for Disease Control recently admitted that they had “overreacted” to the Swine Flu threat. Yet what else were the to do? The media was screaming from minute to minute about the imminent pandemic, and to not react would have drawn harsh criticism.

When I lived in Los Angeles in 1984 the Olympics caused a 3% drop in traffic, and rush hour flowed without jams. Is it possible that just a tick up in unemployment releases enough workers to make hiring that much easier?

I’m sure there’s a little truth to both. The market is a bit more favorable, and the media has employees concerned for their livelihood. The reality is that not much has changed. (I’m not referring. of course, to the more depressed areas of the country.)

Remember this the next time everyone is talking about the lack of decent workers. Keep a realistic attitude; one that realizes good employees are always out there if you look.

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The Criminalization of Integrity

Yesterday Congress passed the credit card reform act. The cynical part of me doesn’t like another law that is designed to protect the stupid from themselves, but that’s not what I’m really upset about.

The New York Times published an article Monday with several quotes from both credit card issuers and politicians. To paraphrase, they said that it was time to make the freeloaders pay up. For too long there had been a certain class of credit card user who rode on the backs of the others, and it was high time they got their just desserts.

These “freeloaders” (their word) are the people who actually pay off their credit cards! It seems that those folks (I am one) have been pillaging the system for free airline miles and points without paying the high interest rates that were supposed to make it all worth while.

They went on to infer that the poor people who ran up debts without being able to pay them back were carrying these looters, since their exorbitant interest fees were being used to secretly subsidize benefits to wealthy people who didn’t need the benefits and didn’t have to pay for them.

I don’t know about you, but I find this characterization of prudent, responsible behavior as somehow being part of a great conspiracy to defraud the poor and helpless to be very frightening. From this kind of demagoguery comes civil unrest. The downtrodden eventually come to the conclusion that the only way to get”their fair share” is to take it from those who have been unjustly withholding it.

Ayn Rand is smiling…

By the way, I got home Monday to find another credit card offer in the mail. This one was only being offered to the people with the very best credit, and promised the very best terms. The terms were 14% interest to start, with no lock and which changed monthly without notice. It was a bad deal, and I threw it away. No brainer. But then, brains aren’t what’s driving all this…

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One Response to The Criminalization of Integrity

  1. Kevin Cooper says:

    Spot On!!! There seems to be a complete vacuum of personal responsibilty out side of any system that has built in penalties. Oh say… like owning your own small business where you are emmediately held accountable by your customers and the market.

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