A New Tax

I dislike taxes as much as anyone. I have a copy of Davey Crockett’s speech “Not Yours To Give” and I think it is true, albeit completely ignored since 1933.

But taxes are a fact of life, and some serve a correct and appropriate purpose. Taxes on gasoline to pay for highway repair make sense to me (if that’s all they were used for.) Few other taxes serve such a clear purpose. Frankly, I’m at a loss to think of another.

We cannot fix Medicare. Changing the eligibility age or increasing payroll deductions are pointless. As long as health care costs continue to increase in the double digits annually, Medicare will go broke. (More on that soon.)

I have a tax proposal that is targeted, encourages cost saving behavior (without expanding the nanny state,) and can be collected and spent with a minimum of bureaucracy.

It’s a fat tax.

Before you start yelling about discrimination, hear me out. Obesity is one of the largest cost drivers in our health care system. We are the fattest nation on earth, and getting fatter. The price in increased heart disease and diabetes alone is enormous.

It is easy to say “people should all go on a diet.” That fact is, as countries grow richer one of the first effects of new wealth is that people eat more. Even China is beginning to have an obesity problem. We are the richest country on this planet, and we have the biggest problem.

Despite this huge, looming public health issue, our free-market system continues to reward those who promote eating habits that are not only unhealthy, but in some cases life-threatening.

A national chain is currently promoting sugar-sweetened pancakes, drenched in strawberries preserved in red-dyed corn syrup, drizzled with sugar icing, and topped with powdered sugar. The promotion is designed to foster the impression that this is a seasonal offer because the strawberry crop is coming in, all though the fruit being used is about as “fresh” as Tutankhamen’s mummy.

A regional burger chain is advertising their newest sandwich. Three patties, four slices of cheese, SIX slices of bacon and a deep-fried onion ring.

So I can eat breakfast and lunch, ordering the “specially priced” promotional item in each restaurant, and have consumed on the order of four times my daily nutrition caloric requirement. I haven’t even gotten to dinner yet – traditionally Americans’ biggest meal of the day.

Do we really need to consume daily the dietary equivalent of what a Somali family of four gets in a week? Yet, it’s an acceptable business practice to spend millions convincing us that”s exactly what we should do. Government-sponsored health education doesn’t have a chance.

Here’s how my Fat Tax would work. You take a reasonable caloric level for decent health. Let’s say 1000 calories per meal. Any single menu item or price combo deal that exceeds that level would have to charge a penny per calorie for every calorie over. In the case of the burger above, that might make it a $17.00 menu item.

That’s it. No attempts to stop people from eating what they want. If you want to pay $17.00 for your bonzo burger go ahead. If you want avoid the tax by ordering three burgers with cheese, each one under the limit, go ahead. No penalty. You can eat all you want without ever paying a cent of tax. The restaurant just can’t encourage you to do it by making it the most attractive option.

We’d collect the tax through the same point-of-service systems that currently tally sales tax. You would exempt establishments that are too small to have a computerized register. Those are fewer and fewer, but let’s say less than 10 employees. If that makes hole in the wall joints hangouts for the orca-fat, so be it.

Finally, the money would go into the Medicare fund. No apportionment, no new bureaucracy. Just dump it in to spend on the rising health care bill of the obese.

Sounds fair to me.

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Is Less Bad Good?

The government is proclaiming the beginning of the beginning of the end. “Only” 540,000 new people lost their jobs last month, instead of 620,000.

The somewhat panicky tone that has characterised these communiques continues. A one month drop, especially following a month that was far worse than expected, isn’t a trend.

The market has rallied by 25%. Of course, the market rallied by over 20% four times between 1929 and 1934, only to wind up exactly where it was. We still haven’t had the classic capitulation day, so maybe the amateurs are still not hurt enough to walk away. It’s hard to counter 20 years of being told “In the long run, the stock market is always the best bet.”

In the long run we are all dead, and the Boomers are running out of time.

So, we will continue to slide until at least the fourth quarter, assuming we don’t fall off a cliff. (That would be the Alt-A mortgage defaults, retail/commercial property collapse and another 7% shrink in consumer spending, all of which is possible.) Assume the economy is lethargic for several years to come. Where do you place your bets as a small business owner?

Real Estate: The Boomer exodus to the sunbelt may be ending. Without massive equity to pull out of cold-belt homes and shrunken 401Ks, the owners will have to plan far more carefully for retirement. This could lead to a resurgence of remodeling in older northern areas, as a paid-off abode looks more appealing regardless of weather.

Also, rising fuel will eventually make air travel more expensive, so fewer folks will move across the country on the assumption that relatives can travel to see them a couple of times a year.

The Atlantic Monthly a few months ago predicted that Phoenix would be one of the last places to recover, since their economy was based on a Ponzi scheme of snowbirds taking huge equity hoards from their houses and using them to overpay for cheaply built tract homes on golf courses.

Look for local opportunities for ageing boomers with some money, but not enough to move away. Create services for those who are staying in older homes by economic choice, but still enjoy disposable income. Avoid exurb developments with huge homes. Gen X and Y will have too many great buying opportunities closer to where the action is.

Green: I admit to being wary of anything that “everyone knows.” Everyone knew that real estate was a sure-fire bet, and that technology had made old business valuation models obsolete. Now everyone knows that Green is the next great money maker.

What money? Green assumes that the government will subsidize or otherwise force the implementation of the technology onto the marketplace. That didn’t work with metric, mass transportation or inner city housing. I think Green, like the Internet, will infiltrate our lives where it makes economic sense. I wouldn’t bet on it until the cost of being un-green starts increasing faster than the cost of converting.

Technology: It sounds crass, but small businesses aren’t really innovators. Now before you squawk, hear me out. Entrepreneurs are very, very creative. They are tenacious problem solvers. On a unique basis, garage inventors have developed many of our world-changing ideas. But of the 25,000,000 small businesses in the USA, how many are garage inventors? Even 1/10 of 1% would give us 25,000, and I think that would be a lot. For the other 99.9% of us, we look at what is happening at the moment and figure out what to do with it. We don’t create what is happening at the moment.

So technology is a driver for our future, but more for productivity and cost savings than as a business opportunity in itself. This is where I’d put my money. Look at anything that gives you closer contact with your customers, reduces employees, or lets you accomplish anything faster, better or more often.

That means a new attitude towards technology. Small business owners usually look at replacing what they have. A computer breaks, buy another computer. A vehicle is too old, replace it. We have to start looking at every expenditure as one that has to make us better, not just keep us running the same way. In that sense, we have to become better innovators than ever before.

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All for one…one for all

The individual incentive, whether monetary or non-monetary, seems logical. It fits best with sales people, who are the most familiar examples when we think of employee incentives. What kind of people would work harder for a group incentive?

Actually, there are a number of positions in a company that attract folks who might prefer group incentives. Customer Service representatives, technical support, back-room analysts, production teams, pick-pack teams. In fact, the terms “support” or “team” in any job description should give you a hint. People who work in groups, or whose jobs revolve around helping others to be successful.

Group incentives can be monetary, like $100 for each member of the team. More frequently, however, the non-monetary rewards work better. You particularly want to consider non-monetary incentives that let the team celebrate together. A pizza party or company jackets recognize the whole team.

Finally, there is one critical point to emphasize in any incentive program. Nothing motivates forever. Every bonus scheme has a lifetime. Any plan should be introduced with the caveat “This inventive is intended to motivate specific behavior and results. Management reserves the right to modify or cancel it at any time.”

Change incentive plans regularly. Swap a long-term individual monetary plan for a short-term non-monetary team goal just to loosen things up. Give team members the ability to excel individually from time to time. One incentive can be a contest, with only a single winner, or first, second and third place but no rewards for fourth on down. Top three performers, top two performers, qualify to be in the group with a drawing for the best prize, or multiple entries in a drawing scaled to your performance. Spend some time thinking of how many ways you can vary rewards, and save them for future use.

All incentive plans go stale. Employees learn to game them. Worst of all, too many managers allow an incentive to remain in place long after the goals are being exceeded with ease, and the bonus has slipped into an entitlement.

When you finally come up with a program that works, avoid the temptation to dust off your hands an walk away. It just means you’ve bought some time until the next incentive plan is due.

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All for one…me

Continuing the discussion on employee incentives.

We have four possible combinations for incentives, monetary/group, monetary/individual, non-monetary/group and non-monetary/individual. How can we determine which incentives will work best?

Sometimes the answer is trial and error. There are many good reasons to change incentive programs regularly, not the least of which is the “Hawthorne Effect.” That is the seminal behavioral study on office lighting and productivity that showed lighting levels were not as important as having the employees know someone was paying attention to their productivity.

To start with, however, you can make a pretty good guess at the type of incentive that might work by the personalities attracted to the position.

Salespeople, for example, are not usually team players. If my territory is New England, I’m not likely to get excited about a bonus that requires the salesman in Chicago to make his goal in order for me to collect. (If you work with salespeople, you’re probably smiling right now at how silly such a program would be.)

So salespeople, for the most part, are incented by individual rewards. But that doesn’t automatically mean monetary rewards. Money is the way of keeping score, but many (if not most) salespeople are motivated by the win, and the recognition that comes from winning. Millions are spent every year on recognition for salespeople. Contests, trophies, trips to sales conferences. Some sales incentives come in the form of more work! How many salespeople have busted their hump for a bigger territory, or to be given a more lucrative line?

There is a behavioral study (it might be Russell Ackoff’s but I’m not sure) that tracks a salesman’s “non-compliance” factor. It goes like this:

You have a set of standards for your sales employees. They re to dress a certain way, submit call reports, get expenses in within 2 weeks or forfeit their reimbursement, be at the sales meeting every Monday at 9:00, etc. All your salespeople follow the rules, more or less.

One sales person starts to see exceptional results. He is hot, and his sales are not only number one in the system, but he’s an order of magnitude better. His call reports start to go missing. (Hey, they’re buying, aren’t they?”) His expense reports are late (“Do you want me doing paperwork, or selling product?”) He shows up in loud plaid sport jackets (“My customers like to be able to pick me out in a crowded trade show.”) He is late for the Monday morning sales meeting…making an entrance while talking to a big prospect on his cell phone.

Do you slap him down? Of course not, and he knows that you won’t. That’s why he’s doing it. He may like the money, but his drive is for recognition, and if it isn’t built into the system to his satisfaction, he’ll find other ways to get it.

As I recall the study, the behavior is self-correcting on results. If the salesman cools off, the closer he falls back into the rest of the pack the more compliant he becomes. No coercion is necessary, especially if another alpha dog is rising in his place.

Remember that all individual incentives are a form of recognition. That’s why you are supposed to publicize them. Don’t make the mistake of telling someone “Don’t tell anyone else how large your bonus is.” That’s precisely the point. Incentives are an updated version of the eons-old custom of preening and strutting in front of the crowd. Removing that component just wastes your money, and no increase in the cash amount will make up for it.

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Small Business can Sell in a Recession

This was an article I had published in the San Antonio Express News yesterday.

Guest Voices: Small businesses can sell in recession

Many business owners think that the current recession has ruined their exit strategy. While the climate may be more daunting for budding entrepreneurs, there are still plenty of buyers around for small businesses.

For Main Street businesses (those selling for less than $3 million), buyers chiefly are driven by personal economics. They are seeking a business as a way to make a living. Their main objective is cash flow, the amount of discretionary income the business generates to cover bank debt and an owner’s salary.

In a recession, the most common economic buyer is an executive who has lost his or her corporate job. These buyers usually have good management skills and substantial savings, along with enough net worth to make a lender comfortable.

Be aware, however, that former corporate executives are also very cautious shoppers. The concept of going it alone can be terrifying enough in the best of times. As a buyer gets closer and closer to closing, the idea of working without a safety net looms larger.

In a giant organization, missing your budget means a poor performance review. In a small business, it could mean closing the doors. Executive buyers need extra assurance that they will succeed. If you are an entrepreneur who has risked it all for years, their concerns may generate little sympathy, but they are a fact you have to deal with.

Harsh economic times also bring out the bottom feeders. These are buyers who shop incessantly for companies that can be bought at bargain basement prices. They frequently will use the economy as an excuse to make a low-ball offer, claiming that your business will not be able to sustain its historical profitability going forward.

Unless you’re actually seeing a decline in revenues and profits, there is no reason to entertain an unfairly low offer for your company. Most small businesses have a minuscule market share and can thrive in any economy if they are careful and aggressive. Unless you are focused in an industry that is especially hard hit by the current downturn, there is no reason to think that general economic conditions will have a proportionate effect on your company.

Of course, your expectations of what constitutes a reasonable price are critical. When buyers are already nervous about financing and the future, an inflated price can scare them away quickly and permanently.

Many business owners price their companies beyond achievable expectations based upon multiples for public companies, industry rumors, their own financial needs or simple misunderstanding of the profitability measurements used in mergers and acquisitions.
There are several national databases that show actual sale prices of small businesses in relation to the profits and size of the company. Though the opinions of your accountant or attorney may be helpful, they may vary widely from the actual pricing that is being achieved in the marketplace.

Just because times are challenging, that is no reason to put your life plan on hold. Like every other aspect of owning a business, the sale of the company will be much more successful if you start with good information, plan carefully and have realistic expectations about the outcome.

John F. Dini is president of MPN Inc. He also operates the nation’s largest franchise of The Alternative Board. He can be contacted at jdini@mpninc.com.

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One Response to Small Business can Sell in a Recession

  1. SunbeltNE says:

    It is true… business sellers are more and more confused in the current market scenario. In such a situation, an experienced business broker might be advisable for a main street business seller.

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